This is possibly one of the gutsiest books I’ve ever read, and one that I opened with a great deal of skepticism. And this is despite the fact that I’ve followed George Friedman’s work for many years with a great deal of admiration. Friedman is the founder of Stratfor, a company that seeks to predict the outcomes of global political developments, crises, and events based on history, geography, and the predicable forces of national ambition. While it may be impossible to predict minute events, the broad strokes of history often repeat themselves, and make the actions of different nations as well as problems they might face clearer. George Friedman has done this sort of prediction for years, and has a roster of Fortune 500 companies with which he does business.

But, as I sized up this book I thought to myself that predicting the next one hundred years is a different sort of animal than is predicting what will happen to Saudi Arabia when it runs out of oil. The cover of the book traces out a fascinating timeline: “2020-China Fragments,” “2050-Global war between U.S., Turkey, Poland, and Japan-the new great powers,” “2080-Space-based energy powers Earth,” “2100-Mexico challenges U.S.” Wow. The key prediction that underpins Friedman’s analysis is that the United States will remain not only powerful, but dominant over the next hundred years. Despite what he calls “passing clouds” such as the war in Afghanistan, he asserts that the foundation of American power is strong. Friedman bases this on geography, demographic stability, and history. America is in a very favorable position with an ability to project its power into the Atlantic as well as the Pacific Oceans, with little regional challenge to this power.

“Friedman manages to accomplish all of this not through talking head partisanship or chest thumping nationalism, but through clear reasoning.”

Friedman likewise asserts that looming challenges to American hegemony will amount to little. For instance, China will face problems sustaining economic growth at the pace at which it is currently growing, and that without breakneck economic growth it will face instability that will arise between the wealthy coasts and the impoverished interior. Friedman also points out that Russia has a rapidly shrinking population and is unfavorably hemmed in by neighboring powers. He predicts at the very least instability and at the very most fragmentation in these countries. Instead, he posits that alternative powers such as Turkey, Poland, and eventually Mexico will come to challenge US might in the coming decades.

However unlikely all of this sounds, Friedman’s reasoning is generally beyond reproach. Most of the basic concepts underlying his treatment of each global arena and each possibility make complete sense. And Friedman manages to accomplish all of this not through talking head partisanship or chest thumping nationalism, but through clear reasoning.

Friedman’s vision of the future may very well come true, but there is a problem with it. If one of his layers of prediction proves incorrect, the entire picture changes radically. For instance, if China does not prove to have the sorts of problems with internal division and economic growth, it challenges his entire vision. And it is on the point of China that I disagree with Friedman. He affords the subject of China too little treatment and doesn’t provide a convincing enough argument that these problems will completely derail the country or cause it to “fragment.” He assumes that his emphasis of historical repetition and his analysis of the unsustainable nature of Chinese growth is enough to prove that China will be a non-player in the global system. And this is a point that remains a little hazy after you finish reading through it.

This is perhaps the most damning issue with Friedman’s book. No matter how good the reasoning on any individual topic, one layer can completely derail the analysis. Nevertheless, it’s still an incredibly interesting read for those interested in the course of global events or for students of geopolitics. Many of the points seem nearly guaranteed to come true after you get the gist of Friedman’s thinking and you’ll surely be impressed by his ability to look past momentary concerns and see the big picture for what it truly is. Pick it up, read it, but don’t take it all to heart.